Nvidia may beat Street expectations and guide higher

Traders are citing lofty "whisper" numbers ahead of Nvidia's fiscal fourth-quarter report, including a '2+2' scenario that would lift both quarter revenue and the next-quarter guide; separate data show retail buying into the print has been materially lighter than prior quarters.

Nvidia will report fiscal fourth-quarter results after the bell, closing out most of this earnings season. Traders and some analysts have circulated elevated "whisper" targets that would require both a quarter beat and a stronger forward guide. The company's past reports have often moved its stock and the broader market, which helps explain the focus on this release. At the same time, some data point to more subdued retail participation going into the report. Key facts: - Nvidia is scheduled to report fiscal fourth-quarter results after the bell. - Historically, shares rose after 10 of the last 16 quarterly releases and the S&P 500 rose alongside Nvidia in nine of those cases. - Some trading desks describe a "2+2" whisper scenario: beat the guide by $2 billion and beat Street expectations for the next-quarter guide by $2 billion. - Nvidia previously guided Q4 revenue at about $65 billion; analysts polled by StreetAccount expect the following-quarter forecast at $72.7 billion, and a 2+2 outcome would imply roughly $67 billion for Q4 and near $75 billion for the next quarter. - Jefferies has indicated a whisper number near $75 billion for fiscal fourth-quarter revenue. - Vanda Research reported materially lighter retail buying ahead of the report, with average daily net flows of $94 million versus $186 million in the five days before the November release, and JPMorgan traders noted that high memory chip prices could pressure margins. Summary: Traders and some analysts have set elevated revenue and guidance expectations ahead of Nvidia's report, raising the bar for a market-moving surprise. At the same time, retail flows have been weaker and higher memory prices were flagged as a potential margin headwind. The company's results and guidance will be released after the bell and market reaction will follow.