Alberta forecasts higher oil prices despite resource-driven budget shortfall

Budget 2026 projects WTI at US$60 in 2026 and US$66 in 2027 while forecasting $13.2-billion in non-renewable resource revenue for 2026-27, even as many analysts point to an oversupplied market and lower private price averages.

Alberta's Budget 2026 sets oil price assumptions that are noticeably higher than many private forecasts and links those assumptions to projected resource revenues. The budget estimates WTI at US$60 per barrel in 2026 and US$66 in 2027 and forecasts $13.2-billion in non-renewable resource cash for 2026-27. Officials say the province's resource revenues have fallen sharply from 2024-25 and attribute the decline to lower benchmark prices and a wider discount on Western Canadian crude. Key facts: - Budget 2026 forecasts WTI at US$60 for 2026 and US$66 for 2027, figures that exceed several private-market averages reported in the article. - Non-renewable resource revenue is projected at $13.2-billion for 2026-27, down about $8.8-billion from the 2024-25 fiscal year. - The government links the revenue drop to lower benchmark prices and a larger WTI–Western Canadian Select gap, and it plans a broad review to support more sustainable fiscal planning. Summary: Alberta's own oil-price outlook is more optimistic than many industry and bank forecasts, creating a gap between the budget's assumptions and several private-market views. That divergence contributes to a multibillion-dollar, resource-driven impact on the province's fiscal outlook. The government has announced a broad review aimed at informing future fiscal planning; the timing and details of that review were not specified in the article.