Keystone XL assets could be revived by new U.S. pipeline proposal

Bridger Pipeline has proposed a line to carry about 550,000 barrels per day from the Canada–U.S. border to Wyoming and says it would need a presidential permit; parts of the cancelled Keystone XL system in Canada remain in place and a South Bow certificate is still valid.

Bridger Pipeline LLC has proposed a new pipeline to carry about 550,000 barrels per day of crude from the Canada–U.S. border in Montana to Guernsey, Wyoming. The proposal could make use of dormant segments of the cancelled Keystone XL system in Alberta, according to analysts and company filings. Bridger filed its plan with the Montana Department of Environmental Quality on Jan. 28 and acknowledged it would require a presidential permit along with other approvals. The Canada Energy Regulator says the certificate allowing South Bow LLC to build the Canadian portion of Keystone XL remains valid and that South Bow continues to meet permit conditions. Key details: - Bridger’s proposal describes roughly a 1,000-kilometre route across Montana and Wyoming, with about 700 kilometres planned parallel to existing pipelines and eight pump stations, one on federal land near the border. - The project would need a U.S. presidential permit; Bridger cited an executive order from Jan. 20, 2025 declaring a national energy emergency and asking agencies to expedite energy transport. - Canada still has some Keystone XL hardware in place: segments of pipe, a terminal and two pump stations, including at the border crossing, which analysts say could be tied into a new route. - The Canada Energy Regulator says South Bow’s certificate for the Canadian portion remains valid, and South Bow has said it is evaluating an expansion that would use existing corridors; the company has an earnings call scheduled for March 6, 2025. - Market competition is a factor: Enbridge is investing to raise capacity on its Mainline and Flanagan South systems, and analysts describe the market as tight with limited additional supply needs. - Keystone XL has a long history of approvals and reversals dating to its 2008 proposal; the southern leg was halted in 2021 when a U.S. permit was revoked, which led to major write-downs and losses for project backers. Summary: The Bridger proposal could create a cross-border outlet by tying into dormant Keystone XL infrastructure, but it depends on multiple regulatory approvals and faces commercial competition. Bridger’s Montana filing and South Bow’s retained permit keep the possibility alive, and expedited permitting under the Trump administration would be a key factor. Further regulatory decisions and commercial arrangements will determine whether the project proceeds; the outcome is undetermined at this time.